Float test at end of bulk fermentation

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Hello! I am pretty new to sourdough bread baking and am still trying to figure out when to end bulk fermentation. Jennifer Latham, Tartine's Head of Bread, recently posted a series of how-to videos for making Tartine's Country Loaf. 

In addition to recommending the float test for levain readiness, she recommends it for determining when it is time to end bulk fermentation. 

I have waited twice now for my dough to float and haven't had any luck. Unfortunately, this lead to overproofing. I started testing the dough every 30 minutes starting at the 2-hour mark. It just kept sinking. I finally gave up after 5 hours the first time and 4.5 hours the second time.

Levain floated prior to pre mix and the dough was maintained around 80 degrees.

Why isn't my dough floating before it becomes overpoofed?

Thanks!!!

Float test will lie to you half of the time - your starter and dough may float way before they are ready and well past their prime, and vice versa - perfectly fermented dough may not float if it's been recently folded or chock full of water.

The thing is, at this point I don't really need to - I've been doing it long enough that I know that with this much starter at this temperature it should take this long, and most of the time I am pretty close.  This how you learn - by keeping detailed records, learing from your failures and making adjustments.

That's true, but some recipes are easier to follow, and less likely to produce unfortunate outcomes.  My feeling is tartine or, for that matter anything that uses overhydrated dough, does not fall into this category.

I've been making natural yeast bread for several years now and have never bothered with a float test, for either my starter/levain or to determine where I am with bulk fermentation.  I agree with the other comments that it really comes down to other signs that you will only get familiar with through trial and error...there are so many variables that come into play, between your kitchen temp, types of ingredients, unique characteristics of your starter, etc.  I know my starter is happy and healthy by all the bubbles and rise.  I've never done a float test to determine where I was in the bulk fermentation stage either.  Usually, you are looking for dough that has nearly doubled in size, has domed at the top, has some large bubbles around the surface, and is kind of jiggly rather than dense.  I learned the most by finding one good recipe that looked interesting and not too complicated, and making that bread several times over, making small tweaks here and there (ingredients, times, working the dough, etc) until I got good results.  Keeping notes is crucial.  Then I branched out to other recipes (nothing too involved), and stick with what works.  I'm happiest with less complicated recipes that give a great result--you can't go wrong with Emilie Raffa's everyday sourdough as a starting point.  Hope that helps!  Happy baking!

It’s not necessary and it’s only a guide. Don’t sweat it :) When your loaf has been proving for at least 5hrs and then hasn’t expanded any more after another hour, sling it in the oven.